The road to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections is already shaping up to be a theater of intrigue, backroom deals, and political horse-trading that could decide the nation’s future. At the heart of this unfolding drama is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party that was once dismissed as a fringe political outfit but has now emerged as a coalition platform drawing some of Nigeria’s most powerful politicians. In recent weeks, the ADC has become the unlikely battlefield for a brewing contest among former President Goodluck Jonathan, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi. Their overlapping ambitions, competing camps, and unresolved ideological differences are threatening to tear the party apart before it even fully establishes itself as a credible third force.
The Nation’s investigation reveals that the most recent of these tense political maneuvers played out at a discreet meeting in Abuja between Jonathan and ADC National Chairman, Senator David Mark. The encounter was supposed to clarify Jonathan’s political future, but instead, it underscored the uncertainty gripping the opposition. Jonathan, whose political re-entry has long been speculated upon, arrived at the meeting with a clear demand: assurance that he would be the ADC’s presidential candidate in 2027. Mark, a veteran politician with years in the Senate and a reputation for strategic caution, was blunt in his reply. The party ticket, he told Jonathan, would not be given on a platter of gold. If the former president wanted to lead Nigeria again, he would have to join the ADC formally, submit himself to the party’s internal processes, and compete in an open primary. That single declaration—no automatic tickets—shifted the entire conversation and may have altered the balance of power within the party.
Jonathan’s Calculated Gamble
For Jonathan, the return bid is fraught with risks. Constitutionally, he can only serve one more term. Some northern leaders, insiders say, are supportive of his candidacy precisely because of this limit. They calculate that his single-term option could create space for a northern presidency again by 2031, making him a useful compromise figure. Yet Jonathan faces two formidable obstacles. First, his strongest base used to be the South-East, a region now firmly under the political grip of Peter Obi. Second, ADC itself is heavily influenced, if not outright controlled, by Atiku Abubakar, who has been quietly investing in the party’s structures. Sources estimate that Atiku already has between 65 to 70 percent control of the ADC machinery.
Jonathan’s meeting with Mark, therefore, was as much about testing the waters as it was about staking a claim. But Mark’s insistence on a transparent primary appears to have left Jonathan unconvinced. His strategists, sources disclose, had hoped for a more definitive commitment, something resembling a gentleman’s agreement. Instead, they left with vague assurances that the matter could be “reviewed” at a later date. For Jonathan, this is far from satisfactory, especially given that he is reluctant to return to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which he considers toxic and riddled with factional battles.
Atiku’s Shadow Over ADC
Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar is playing the long game. Though he has not yet formally declared his membership in ADC, he is already deeply entrenched in its workings. His spokesperson, Paul Ibe, confirmed to The Nation that the former Vice President is “a committed and active member of the coalition ADC” and is heavily involved in planting structures across the country. Atiku has calculated that ADC provides him a cleaner slate than the PDP, where his repeated presidential ambitions have been bogged down by infighting and betrayals. However, his reluctance to fully commit without securing the presidential ticket outright is causing jitters within the party. For Atiku, the nightmare scenario is investing in ADC only to be outmaneuvered by Jonathan or Obi.
Publicly, Atiku insists he is not afraid of a primary. Privately, his camp believes he has done enough groundwork to secure the nomination once the primaries are held. He is not, however, willing to make the same mistake he made in the PDP—jumping in without airtight assurances. Hence, while his spokespeople emphasize his commitment to building ADC’s strength, the former VP continues to calculate the risks of betrayal.
Obi’s Dilemma and the Vice-Presidential Question
If Jonathan’s gamble is risky and Atiku’s strategy cautious, Peter Obi’s position is downright precarious. Among the three, Obi arguably commands the most organic support, especially in the South-East and among young Nigerians. His name still resonates loudly on social media and in diaspora communities. Yet, his political leverage is undermined by two factors: low voter registration numbers in his strongholds and the perception that he cannot win the presidency outright without aligning with a broader national coalition.
ADC insiders confirm that the party has consistently dangled the vice-presidential slot before him, particularly under a possible Atiku candidacy. But Obi’s supporters—who fueled his strong 2023 run—are vehemently opposed to any suggestion of him playing second fiddle again. To them, anything less than a presidential run would amount to political betrayal. This makes Obi’s negotiations within ADC a delicate balancing act. Publicly, he has insisted on equity and fairness, stating that power must remain in the South for another eight years. Privately, he has assured allies that he is willing to do only one term as president if elected. That pledge, aimed at making him appear more palatable to northern stakeholders, is complicated by his supporters’ refusal to countenance any demotion to vice-president.
One source captured Obi’s conundrum succinctly: “If he goes back to his people to say he is accepting VP, it will be politically suicidal.” In other words, Obi must either hold firm to his presidential ambition within ADC or risk alienating his most loyal base.
Mark’s Balancing Act
Caught in the middle of this high-stakes political chessboard is David Mark. The former Senate President, who now serves as ADC’s national chairman, is navigating treacherous waters. His decision to reject Jonathan’s request for an automatic ticket was less about Jonathan personally and more about preserving the credibility of the party. Mark understands that promising the ticket to any one aspirant could fatally fracture the fragile coalition ADC is trying to build. Yet, his insistence on primaries has also left aspirants like Jonathan feeling shortchanged.
Mark’s balancing act is complicated further by the internal divisions within ADC itself. While some leaders are pushing for a southern candidate, others—primarily Atiku’s loyalists—are unwilling to cede ground. The party, therefore, risks becoming a victim of the very ambitions it seeks to unify.
The Larger Political Landscape
The drama within ADC cannot be separated from Nigeria’s broader political landscape. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) under President Bola Tinubu is already positioning itself for reelection in 2027. Opposition parties, weakened by infighting and credibility crises, see ADC as a potential unifying platform. But if ADC’s internal battles escalate, it risks losing that opportunity. For Jonathan, Atiku, and Obi, the stakes could not be higher. A miscalculation at this stage could not only ruin their 2027 chances but also end their political careers altogether.
For Jonathan, a failed return would cement his legacy as a one-term president who attempted a comeback but could not muster the political will. For Atiku, another failed bid would likely end his decades-long presidential ambition. For Obi, compromising on the vice-presidential slot could cost him the moral high ground that has sustained his political relevance.
What Lies Ahead
The Nation’s investigation suggests that ADC is at a crossroads. Its ability to emerge as a credible alternative by 2027 depends on whether it can manage the ambitions of its heavyweights without collapsing under their weight. For now, Jonathan is still consulting, Atiku is still calculating, and Obi is still consolidating. The common denominator is uncertainty.
What is clear, however, is that ADC’s presidential ticket is already the most sought-after prize in Nigeria’s opposition politics. Whether the party can withstand the pressure of these competing titans remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the road to 2027 will be defined as much by what happens behind closed doors in Abuja drawing rooms as by what is said on campaign podiums across the country.
As it stands, ADC is both the hope of Nigeria’s fragmented opposition and the potential graveyard of their ambitions. The next few months will reveal which it becomes.
